Development of pre and post-operative models to predict early recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma after surgical resection

doi:10.1016/j.jhep.2018.08.027

科研成果详情

题名	Development of pre and post-operative models to predict early recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma after surgical resection
作者	Chan, Anthony W. H.1,2; Zhong, Jianhong 3; Berhane, Sarah 4; Toyoda, Hidenori 5; Cucchetti, Alessandro 6; Shi, KeQing7; Tada, Toshifumi 5; Chong, Charing C. N.1,2; Xiang, Bang-De 3; Li, Le-Qun 3; Lai, Paul B. S.1,2; Mazzaferro, Vincenzo 8,9; Garcia-Finana, Marta 10; Kudo, Masatoshi 11; Kumada, Takashi 5; Roayaie, Sasan 12; Johnson, Philip J.4
发表期刊	JOURNAL OF HEPATOLOGY 影响因子和分区
语种	英语
原始文献类型	Article
关键词	Hepatocellular carcinoma Recurrence Resection ERASL modelling prognosis
其他关键词	CURATIVE LIVER RESECTION ; INTRAHEPATIC METASTASIS ; MICROVASCULAR INVASION ; RISK-FACTORS ; PRACTICE GUIDELINES ; ANTIVIRAL THERAPY ; SURVIVAL ; IMPACT ; TRANSPLANTATION ; PERFORMANCE
摘要	Background & Aims: Resection is the most widely used potentially curative treatment for patients with early hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, recurrence within 2 years occurs in 30-50% of patients, being the major cause of mortality. Herein, we describe 2 models, both based on widely available clinical data, which permit risk of early recurrence to be assessed before and after resection. Methods: A total of 3,903 patients undergoing surgical resection with curative intent were recruited from 6 different centres. We built 2 models for early recurrence, 1 using preoperative and 1 using pre and post-operative data, which were internally validated in the Hong Kong cohort. The models were then externally validated in European, Chinese and US cohorts. We developed 2 online calculators to permit easy clinical application. Results: Multivariable analysis identified male gender, large tumour size, multinodular tumour, high albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade and high serum alpha-fetoprotein as the key parameters related to early recurrence. Using these variables, a preoperative model (ERASL-pre) gave 3 risk strata for recurrence-free survival (RFS) in the entire cohort - low risk: 2-year RFS 64.8%, intermediate risk: 2-year RFS 42.5% and high risk: 2-year RFS 20.7%. Median survival in each stratum was similar between centres and the discrimination between the 3 strata was enhanced in the post-operative model (ERASL-post) which included 'microvascular invasion'. Conclusions: Statistical models that can predict the risk of early HCC recurrence after resection have been developed, exten-sively validated and shown to be applicable in the international setting. Such models will be valuable in guiding surveillance follow-up and in the design of post-resection adjuvant therapy trials. Lay summary: The most effective treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma is surgical removal of the tumour but there is often recurrence. In this large international study, we develop a statistical method that allows clinicians to estimate the risk of recurrence in an individual patient. This facility enhances communication with the patient about the likely success of the treatment and will help in designing clinical trials that aim to find drugs that decrease the risk of recurrence. (C) 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of European Association for the Study of the Liver.
资助项目	UK EPSRCUK Research & Innovation (UKRI)Engineering & Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) [EP/N014499/1]; EPSRCUK Research & Innovation (UKRI)Engineering & Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) [EP/N014499/1] Funding Source: UKRI; MRCUK Research & Innovation (UKRI)Medical Research Council UK (MRC) [MR/L010909/1] Funding Source: UKRI
出版者	ELSEVIER
出版地	AMSTERDAM
ISSN	0168-8278
EISSN	1600-0641
卷号	69 期号:6 页码:1284-1293
DOI	10.1016/j.jhep.2018.08.027
WOS类目	Gastroenterology & Hepatology
WOS研究方向	Gastroenterology & Hepatology
WOS记录号	WOS:000450292500012
收录类别	SCIE ; PUBMED ; SCOPUS
发表日期	2018-12
URL	查看原文
Pubmed记录号	30236834
Scopus记录号	2-s2.0-85054457902
ESI高被引论文	2020-09 ; 2020-11 ; 2021-01 ; 2021-03 ; 2021-05 ; 2021-07 ; 2021-11 ; 2022-01 ; 2022-03 ; 2022-07 ; 2022-09 ; 2022-11 ; 2023-01 ; 2023-03 ; 2023-05 ; 2023-07 ; 2023-09 ; 2023-11 ; 2024-01 ; 2024-03 ; 2024-05
自科自定义期刊分类	T2(B)类
引用统计	被引频次：208[WOS] [WOS记录] [WOS相关记录]
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	https://kms.wmu.edu.cn/handle/3ETUA0LF/20563
专题	附属第一医院
通讯作者	Johnson, Philip J.
作者单位	1.Chinese Univ Hong Kong, Dept Anat & Cellular Pathol, State Key Lab Oncol South China, Sir YK Pao Ctr Canc, Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Peoples R China; 2.Chinese Univ Hong Kong, Dept Surg, Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Peoples R China; 3.Guangxi Med Univ, Affiliated Tumour Hosp, Dept Hepatobiliary Surg, Nanning, Peoples R China; 4.Univ Liverpool, Dept Mol & Clin Canc Med, 2nd Floor Sherrington Bldg,Ashton St, Liverpool L69 3GE, Merseyside, England; 5.Ogaki Municipal Hosp, Dept Gastroenterol & Hepatol, 4-86 Minaminokawa Cho, Ogaki, Gifu 5038052, Japan; 6.Univ Bologna, Alma Mater Studiorum, Dept Med & Surg Sci, Bologna, Italy; 7.Wenzhou Med Univ, Affiliated Hosp 1, Liver Res Ctr, Dept Infect & Liver Dis, Wenzhou, Peoples R China; 8.Univ Milan, Milan, Italy; 9.Fdn IRCCS, Ist Nazl Tumori, Gastrointestinal Surg & Liver Transplantat Unit, Milan, Italy; 10.Univ Liverpool, Dept Biostat, Liverpool, Merseyside, England; 11.Kindai Univ, Fac Med, Dept Gastroenterol & Hepatol, Osaka, Japan; 12.White Plains Hosp, Montefiore Hlth Syst, Liver Canc Program, White Plains, NY USA
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Chan, Anthony W. H.,Zhong, Jianhong,Berhane, Sarah,et al. Development of pre and post-operative models to predict early recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma after surgical resection[J]. JOURNAL OF HEPATOLOGY,2018,69(6):1284-1293.
APA	Chan, Anthony W. H.., Zhong, Jianhong., Berhane, Sarah., Toyoda, Hidenori., Cucchetti, Alessandro., ... & Johnson, Philip J.. (2018). Development of pre and post-operative models to predict early recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma after surgical resection. JOURNAL OF HEPATOLOGY, 69(6), 1284-1293.
MLA	Chan, Anthony W. H.,et al."Development of pre and post-operative models to predict early recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma after surgical resection".JOURNAL OF HEPATOLOGY 69.6(2018):1284-1293.