Insights into the performance of PREDICT tool in a large Mainland Chinese breast cancer cohort: a comparative analysis of versions 3.0 and 2.2

doi:10.1093/oncolo/oyae164

科研成果详情

题名	Insights into the performance of PREDICT tool in a large Mainland Chinese breast cancer cohort: a comparative analysis of versions 3.0 and 2.2
作者	Chen, Endong1; Chen, Chen 2; Chen, Yingying 3; You, Jie4; Jin, Chun ; Huang, Zhenxuan 2; Zhang, Jiayi 2; Wang, Qingxuan4; Cai, Yefeng4; Hu, Xiaoqu1; Li, Quan1
发表日期	2024-06-29
发表期刊	ONCOLOGIST 影响因子和分区
语种	英语
原始文献类型	Article ; Early Access
关键词	breast cancer PREDICT prediction model chinese population overall survival
其他关键词	PROGNOSTIC MODEL PREDICT ; VALIDATION ; WOMEN
摘要	Background PREDICT is a web-based tool for forecasting breast cancer outcomes. PREDICT version 3.0 was recently released. This study aimed to validate this tool for a large population in mainland China and compare v3.0 with v2.2.Methods Women who underwent surgery for nonmetastatic primary invasive breast cancer between 2010 and 2020 from the First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University were selected. Predicted and observed 5-year overall survival (OS) for both v3.0 and v2.2 were compared. Discrimination was compared using receiver-operator curves and DeLong test. Calibration was evaluated using calibration plots and chi-squared test. A difference greater than 5% was deemed clinically relevant.Results A total of 5424 patients were included, with median follow-up time of 58 months (IQR 38-89 months). Compared to v2.2, v3.0 did not show improved discriminatory accuracy for 5-year OS (AUC: 0.756 vs 0.771), same as ER-positive and ER-negative patients. However, calibration was significantly improved in v3.0, with predicted 5-year OS deviated from observed by -2.0% for the entire cohort, -2.9% for ER-positive and -0.0% for ER-negative patients, compared to -7.3%, -4.7% and -13.7% in v2.2. In v3.0, 5-year OS was underestimated by 9.0% for patients older than 75 years, and 5.8% for patients with micrometastases. Patients with distant metastases postdiagnosis was overestimated by 10.6%.Conclusions PREDICT v3.0 reliably predicts 5-year OS for the majority of Chinese patients with breast cancer. PREDICT v3.0 significantly improved the predictive accuracy for ER-negative groups. Furthermore, caution is advised when interpreting 5-year OS for patients aged over 70, those with micrometastases or metastases postdiagnosis. PREDICT is a web-based tool used to forecast breast cancer outcomes. This study aimed to validate this tool for a large population in mainland China and compare v3.0 with v2.2.
资助项目	First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University [spy202114]; Science and Technology Plan Project of Wenzhou [2022Y0617]; Zhejiang Province Traditional Chinese Medicine Science and Technology Plan Project [2024ZL610]; First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University Research Project [DDYL-KY-20240126]
出版者	OXFORD UNIV PRESS
ISSN	1083-7159
EISSN	1549-490X
卷号	29 期号:8 页码:e976-e983
DOI	10.1093/oncolo/oyae164
页数	8
WOS类目	Oncology
WOS研究方向	Oncology
WOS记录号	WOS:001257568100001
收录类别	SCIE ; PUBMED ; SCOPUS
URL	查看原文
PubMed ID	3894354
SCOPUSEID	2-s2.0-85200636760
通讯作者地址	[Li, Quan]Wenzhou Med Univ, Affiliated Hosp 1, Dept Breast Surg, Wenzhou, Zhejiang, Peoples R China.
Scopus学科分类	Medicine (all)
TOP期刊	TOP期刊
引用统计
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	https://kms.wmu.edu.cn/handle/3ETUA0LF/215316
专题	附属第一医院第一临床医学院（信息与工程学院）、附属第一医院附属第一医院_肛肠外科第一临床医学院（信息与工程学院）、附属第一医院_外科学_甲状腺外科
通讯作者	Li, Quan
作者单位	1.Wenzhou Med Univ, Affiliated Hosp 1, Dept Breast Surg, Wenzhou, Zhejiang, Peoples R China; 2.Wenzhou Med Univ, Sch Med 1, Sch Informat & Engn, Wenzhou, Zhejiang, Peoples R China; 3.Wenzhou Med Univ, Affiliated Hosp 1, Dept Colorectal & Anal Surg, Wenzhou, Zhejiang, Peoples R China; 4.Wenzhou Med Univ, Affiliated Hosp 1, Dept Thyroid Surg, Wenzhou, Zhejiang, Peoples R China
第一作者单位	附属第一医院
通讯作者单位	附属第一医院
第一作者的第一单位	附属第一医院
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Chen, Endong,Chen, Chen,Chen, Yingying,et al. Insights into the performance of PREDICT tool in a large Mainland Chinese breast cancer cohort: a comparative analysis of versions 3.0 and 2.2[J]. ONCOLOGIST,2024,29(8):e976-e983.
APA	Chen, Endong., Chen, Chen., Chen, Yingying., You, Jie., Jin, Chun., ... & Li, Quan. (2024). Insights into the performance of PREDICT tool in a large Mainland Chinese breast cancer cohort: a comparative analysis of versions 3.0 and 2.2. ONCOLOGIST, 29(8), e976-e983.
MLA	Chen, Endong,et al."Insights into the performance of PREDICT tool in a large Mainland Chinese breast cancer cohort: a comparative analysis of versions 3.0 and 2.2".ONCOLOGIST 29.8(2024):e976-e983.