Development and validation of a nomogram model for prediction of stroke-associated pneumonia associated with intracerebral hemorrhage

doi:10.1186/s12877-023-04310-5

科研成果详情

题名	Development and validation of a nomogram model for prediction of stroke-associated pneumonia associated with intracerebral hemorrhage
作者	Wang, Ying1,2; Chen, Yuting 1,2; Chen, Roumeng1,2; Xu, Yuchen1; Zheng, Han 3; Xu, Jiajun3; Xia, Jinyang 3; Cai, Yifan 3; Xu, Huiqin1; Wang, Xinshi1,4,5
发表日期	2023-10-07
发表期刊	BMC geriatrics 影响因子和分区
语种	英语
原始文献类型	Randomized Controlled Trial ; Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
关键词	Intracranial hemorrhage Nomogram Predictors Stroke-associated pneumonia Validation
其他关键词	RISK SCORE ; CURVE ; CALIBRATION ; INFECTION
摘要	We aimed to establish risk factors for stroke-associated pneumonia (SAP) following intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) and develop an efficient and convenient model to predict SAP in patients with ICH., Our study involved 1333 patients consecutively diagnosed with ICH and admitted to the Neurology Department of the First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University. The 1333 patients were randomly divided (3:1) into the derivation cohort (n = 1000) and validation Cohort (n = 333). Variables were screened from demographics, lifestyle-related factors, comorbidities, clinical symptoms, neuroimaging features, and laboratory tests. In the derivation cohort, we developed a prediction model with multivariable logistic regression analysis. In the validation cohort, we assessed the model performance and compared it to previously reported models. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), GiViTI calibration belt, net reclassification index (NRI), integrated discrimination index (IDI) and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to assess the prediction ability and the clinical decision-making ability., The incidence of SAP was 19.9% and 19.8% in the derivation (n = 1000) and validation (n = 333) cohorts, respectively. We developed a nomogram prediction model including age (Odds Ratio [OR] 1.037, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.020-1.054), male sex (OR 1.824, 95% CI 1.206-2.757), multilobar involvement (OR 1.851, 95% CI 1.160-2.954), extension into ventricles (OR 2.164, 95% CI 1.456-3.215), dysphagia (OR 3.626, 95% CI 2.297-5.725), disturbance of consciousness (OR 2.113, 95% CI 1.327-3.362) and total muscle strength of the worse side (OR 0.93, 95% CI 0.876-0.987). Compared with previous models, our model was well calibrated and showed significantly higher AUROC, better reclassification ability (improved NRI and IDI) and a positive net benefit for predicted probability thresholds between 10% and 73% in DCA., We developed a simple, valid, and clinically useful model to predict SAP following ICH, with better predictive performance than previous models. It might be a promising tool to assess the individual risk of developing SAP for patients with ICH and optimize decision-making.
资助项目	Not applicable.
出版者	BMC
ISSN	1471-2318
EISSN	1471-2318
卷号	23 期号:1
DOI	10.1186/s12877-023-04310-5
页数	11
WOS类目	Geriatrics & Gerontology ; Gerontology
WOS研究方向	Geriatrics & Gerontology
WOS记录号	WOS:001079606200001
收录类别	PUBMED ; SCIE ; SCOPUS ; SSCI
URL	查看原文
PubMed ID	37805464
SCOPUSEID	2-s2.0-85173474192
社科自定义期刊分类	D类
通讯作者地址	[Xu, Huiqin]Department of Neurology,The First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University,Zhejiang,Wenzhou,China ; [Wang, Xinshi]Department of Neurology,The First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University,Zhejiang,Wenzhou,China
Scopus学科分类	Geriatrics and Gerontology
引用统计
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	https://kms.wmu.edu.cn/handle/3ETUA0LF/183339
专题	附属第一医院研究生工作部（研究生院）卓越中心_老年研究院
通讯作者	Xu, Huiqin; Wang, Xinshi
作者单位	1.Department of Neurology,The First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University,Zhejiang,Wenzhou,China; 2.Graduate school,Wenzhou Medical University,Zhejiang,Wenzhou,China; 3.First Clinical School of Medicine,Wenzhou Medical University,Zhejiang,Wenzhou,China; 4.Key Laboratory of Alzheimer’s Disease of Zhejiang Province,Institute of Aging,Wenzhou Medical University,Zhejiang,Wenzhou,China; 5.Department of Geriatrics,Geriatric Medical Center,The First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University,Zhejiang,Wenzhou,China
第一作者单位	附属第一医院; 第一临床医学院（信息与工程学院）、附属第一医院; 研究生工作部
通讯作者单位	附属第一医院; 第一临床医学院（信息与工程学院）、附属第一医院
第一作者的第一单位	附属第一医院
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wang, Ying,Chen, Yuting,Chen, Roumeng,et al. Development and validation of a nomogram model for prediction of stroke-associated pneumonia associated with intracerebral hemorrhage[J]. BMC geriatrics,2023,23(1).
APA	Wang, Ying., Chen, Yuting., Chen, Roumeng., Xu, Yuchen., Zheng, Han., ... & Wang, Xinshi. (2023). Development and validation of a nomogram model for prediction of stroke-associated pneumonia associated with intracerebral hemorrhage. BMC geriatrics, 23(1).
MLA	Wang, Ying,et al."Development and validation of a nomogram model for prediction of stroke-associated pneumonia associated with intracerebral hemorrhage".BMC geriatrics 23.1(2023).

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