Meteorological factors affecting respiratory syncytial virus infection: A time-series analysis

doi:10.1002/ppul.24629

科研成果详情

题名	Meteorological factors affecting respiratory syncytial virus infection: A time-series analysis
作者	Zhang, Hailin1,2; Wen, Shunhang2; Zheng, Jingwei3; Chen, Xiaofang2; Lv, Fangfang2; Liu, Li 1
发表日期	2020-03
发表期刊	PEDIATRIC PULMONOLOGY 影响因子和分区
语种	英语
原始文献类型	Article
关键词	meteorological factors respiratory syncytial virus seasonal variation time-series analysis weather
其他关键词	EPIDEMIC ACTIVITY ; YOUNG-CHILDREN ; RISK ; SEASONALITY ; PNEUMONIA ; RAINFALL ; DISEASE ; BURDEN ; CHINA
摘要	Introduction Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection is a major cause of hospitalization in children. Meteorological factors are known to influence seasonal RSV epidemics, but the relationship between meteorological factors and RSV infection in children is not well understood. We aimed to explore the relationship between meteorological factors and RSV infections among hospitalized children, using different statistical models. Methods We conducted a retrospective review concerning children with RSV infections admitted to a tertiary pediatric hospital in Wenzhou, China, between January 2008 and December 2017. The relationship between meteorological factors (average daily temperatures, average daily relative humidity, rainfall, rainfall days, and wind speed) and the incidence of RSV in hospitalized children was analyzed using three time-series models, namely an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, a generalized additive model (GAM), and a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO)-based model. Results In total, 15 858 (17.6%) children tested positive for RSV infection. The ARIMA model revealed a marked seasonal pattern in the RSV detection rate, which peaked in winter and spring. The model was a good predictor of RSV incidence (R-2: 83.5%). The GAM revealed that a lower temperature and higher wind speed preceded increases in RSV detection. The LASSO-based model revealed that temperature and relative humidity were negatively correlated with RSV detection. Conclusions Seasonality of RSV infection in hospitalized children correlated strongly with temperature. The LASSO-based model can be used to predict annual RSV epidemics using weather forecast data.
资助项目	Second Affiliated Hospital and Yuying Children's Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University[undefined];
出版者	WILEY
出版地	HOBOKEN
ISSN	8755-6863
EISSN	1099-0496
卷号	55 期号:3 页码:713-718
DOI	10.1002/ppul.24629
页数	6
WOS类目	Pediatrics ; Respiratory System
WOS研究方向	Pediatrics ; Respiratory System
WOS记录号	WOS:000505870100001
收录类别	SCIE ; PUBMED ; SCOPUS
URL	查看原文
PubMed ID	31909893
SCOPUSEID	2-s2.0-85077866524
通讯作者地址	[Liu, Li]Department of Pediatrics,The First Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University,Xi'an,China
Scopus学科分类	Pediatrics, Perinatology and Child Health;Pulmonary and Respiratory Medicine
引用统计	被引频次：5[WOS] [WOS记录] [WOS相关记录]
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	https://kms.wmu.edu.cn/handle/3ETUA0LF/16779
专题	第二临床医学院、附属第二医院、育英儿童医院附属第二医院眼视光学院（生物医学工程学院）、附属眼视光医院_临床与流行病学研究中心
通讯作者	Liu, Li
作者单位	1.Department of Pediatrics,The First Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University,Xi'an,China; 2.Department of Children's Respiratory Disease,The Second Affiliated Hospital and Yuying Children's Hospital,Wenzhou Medical University,Wenzhou,China; 3.Department of Clinical Research,Eye Hospital,Wenzhou Medical University,Wenzhou,China
第一作者单位	附属第二医院
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang, Hailin,Wen, Shunhang,Zheng, Jingwei,et al. Meteorological factors affecting respiratory syncytial virus infection: A time-series analysis[J]. PEDIATRIC PULMONOLOGY,2020,55(3):713-718.
APA	Zhang, Hailin, Wen, Shunhang, Zheng, Jingwei, Chen, Xiaofang, Lv, Fangfang, & Liu, Li. (2020). Meteorological factors affecting respiratory syncytial virus infection: A time-series analysis. PEDIATRIC PULMONOLOGY, 55(3), 713-718.
MLA	Zhang, Hailin,et al."Meteorological factors affecting respiratory syncytial virus infection: A time-series analysis".PEDIATRIC PULMONOLOGY 55.3(2020):713-718.